The NAND Flash market is expected to record a 4–5% supply deficit in 2026, according to TrendForce’s July update.
TrendForce attributes the shortage to surging AI-related demand and limited capacity expansion. Suppliers are expected to increase output mainly through process-node migrations and upgrades to existing production lines.
Chinese manufacturers are expected to expand capacity significantly as new equipment comes online. Their share of global NAND Flash bit output could rise to nearly 19%.
Shipments of servers based on Intel’s and AMD’s next-generation platforms are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2026. TrendForce forecasts full-year server shipments to grow 17% from 2025, while agentic AI applications are expected to sustain demand in 2027.
Consumer demand remains weak by comparison. Global smartphone production could fall 15–20% in 2026, while notebook shipments are estimated to decline by around 10%. TrendForce expects smartphone production to fall again at a more moderate pace in 2027 and notebook shipments to contract slightly.
Servers now account for more than 40% of total NAND Flash bit demand, but smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40%. With output increasing and consumer demand remaining weak, the supply-demand balance is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2027, allowing supply constraints to ease gradually.
